Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints2
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sam Reinhart Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake Guentzel Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Aleksander Barkov Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P319:18Evgeni Malkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (22), Bryan Rust (16)2–2
- P211:49Sam Reinhart Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (34), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16)2–1
- P14:52Evan Rodrigues Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (15), Sam Bennett (12)1–1
- P11:51Jake Guentzel Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (15), Erik Karlsson (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Jake Guentzel Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (15), Erik Karlsson (27)FLA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 55% → 69% +14PIT 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:52Evan Rodrigues Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (15), Sam Bennett (12)FLA 1 – 1 PIT · FLA 31% → 46% +14FLA 31% → 46%+14 pts
- P211:49Sam Reinhart Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (34), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16)FLA 2 – 1 PIT · FLA 47% → 67% +21FLA 47% → 67%+21 pts
- P319:18Evgeni Malkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (22), Bryan Rust (16)FLA 2 – 2 PIT · PIT <1% → 51% +50PIT <1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -120
- FLA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +22 Elo | PIT 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 1st of 3114–9 | Road vs home | 10–1017th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.