Florida Panthers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Sam BennettAssists3
- Sam BennettPoints3
Predators- Jeremy LauzonGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists1
- Jeremy LauzonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:40Matthew Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (22)4–1
- P318:21Brandon Montour Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (32), Sam Bennett (11)3–1
- P31:11Carter Verhaeghe Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (10)2–1
- P212:16Jeremy Lauzon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (12)1–1
- P211:18Sam Reinhart Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:18Sam Reinhart Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (9)FLA 1 – 0 NSH · FLA 47% → 67% +20FLA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P212:16Jeremy Lauzon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (12)FLA 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 32% → 53% +21NSH 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P31:11Carter Verhaeghe Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (10)FLA 2 – 1 NSH · FLA 47% → 72% +25FLA 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P318:21Brandon Montour Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (32), Sam Bennett (11)FLA 3 – 1 NSH · FLA 99% → >99% +1FLA 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P319:40Matthew Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (22)FLA 4 – 1 NSH · FLA 100% → 100% +0FLA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 54%
- Fair odds
- NSH -121
- FLA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +26 Elo | NSH 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 5th of 3113–9 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.