New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists3
- Noah DobsonPoints3
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:48Sean Monahan Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (6), Cole Caufield (21)3–4
- P316:28Kyle Palmieri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (45), Bo Horvat (25)3–3
- P314:52Mathew Barzal Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (44), Kyle Palmieri (15)2–3
- P23:02Bo Horvat Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (37), Noah Dobson (43)1–3
- P112:19Sean Monahan Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (26), Sam Montembeault (2)0–3
- P111:36Cole Caufield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (28)0–2
- P17:06Nick Suzuki Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (13), Sean Monahan (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:06Nick Suzuki Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (13), Sean Monahan (21)NYI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 69% +15MTL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P111:36Cole Caufield Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (28)NYI 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 69% → 82% +13MTL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P314:52Mathew Barzal Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (44), Kyle Palmieri (15)NYI 2 – 3 MTL · NYI <1% → 10% +9NYI <1% → 10%+9 pts
- P316:28Kyle Palmieri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (45), Bo Horvat (25)NYI 3 – 3 MTL · NYI 6% → 49% +43NYI 6% → 49%+43 pts
- P317:48Sean Monahan Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (6), Cole Caufield (21)NYI 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 51% → 97% +46MTL 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Fair odds
- MTL -120
- NYI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −1 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +15 Elo | MTL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.4% | Shot share | 45.5%28th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 28th of 317–15 | Road vs home | 9–1528th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.