Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Alex PietrangeloAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:26Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Adam Pelech (4)3–2
- P29:07Nicolas Roy Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (15), Ivan Barbashev (14)3–1
- P27:18Sheldon Rempal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (14), Alex Pietrangelo (19)2–1
- P23:35Brock Nelson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (8), Noah Dobson (42)1–1
- P111:52Ivan Barbashev Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:52Ivan Barbashev Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (18)VGK 1 – 0 NYI · VGK 44% → 60% +16VGK 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P23:35Brock Nelson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (8), Noah Dobson (42)VGK 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 37% → 56% +18NYI 37% → 56%+18 pts
- P27:18Sheldon Rempal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (14), Alex Pietrangelo (19)VGK 2 – 1 NYI · VGK 45% → 64% +19VGK 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P29:07Nicolas Roy Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (15), Ivan Barbashev (14)VGK 3 – 1 NYI · VGK 65% → 81% +16VGK 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P39:26Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (6), Adam Pelech (4)VGK 3 – 2 NYI · NYI 5% → 21% +17NYI 5% → 21%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 49%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- VGK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +22 | −4 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.56 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +10 Elo | VGK 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 45.0%29th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 19th of 319–12 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.