Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Michael SgarbossaAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:06Eetu Luostarinen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (37)2–4
- P314:28Ryan Lomberg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (12)2–3
- P217:32Sam Reinhart Goal (38) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (36), Carter Verhaeghe (27)2–2
- P214:03Anthony Mantha Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (1), Aliaksei Protas (16)2–1
- P24:29Matthew Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (15)1–1
- P116:38Alex Ovechkin Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (12), Connor McMichael (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:38Alex Ovechkin Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (12), Connor McMichael (9)WSH 1 – 0 FLA · WSH 44% → 61% +17WSH 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P24:29Matthew Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (15)WSH 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 37% → 55% +19FLA 37% → 55%+19 pts
- P214:03Anthony Mantha Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Michael Sgarbossa (1), Aliaksei Protas (16)WSH 2 – 1 FLA · WSH 46% → 67% +22WSH 46% → 67%+22 pts
- P217:32Sam Reinhart Goal (38) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (36), Carter Verhaeghe (27)WSH 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 31% → 54% +23FLA 31% → 54%+23 pts
- P314:28Ryan Lomberg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (12)WSH 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 89% +37FLA 52% → 89%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Fair odds
- FLA -131
- WSH +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −3 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +96 Elo | FLA 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 55.5%2nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 24th of 319–13 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.