Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:36Noah Cates Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P213:33Travis Konecny Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (24), Sean Walker (13)1–1
- P19:22Carter Verhaeghe Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:22Carter Verhaeghe Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +15FLA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P213:33Travis Konecny Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (24), Sean Walker (13)PHI 1 – 1 FLA · PHI 26% → 46% +20PHI 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P32:36Noah Cates Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 2 – 1 FLA · PHI 47% → 72% +26PHI 47% → 72%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Fair odds
- FLA -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +81 Elo | FLA 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 55.6%2nd of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%7th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 11th of 3113–11 | Road vs home | 13–912th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.