Florida Panthers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints2
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:57Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (21), Anthony Stolarz (1)3–2
- P318:31Kyle Palmieri Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (46), Mathew Barzal (38)2–2
- P35:59Matthew Tkachuk Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (37), Brandon Montour (9)2–1
- P216:29Simon Holmstrom Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14), Oliver Wahlstrom (4)1–1
- P27:56Sam Reinhart Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (35), Carter Verhaeghe (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:56Sam Reinhart Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (35), Carter Verhaeghe (26)FLA 1 – 0 NYI · FLA 44% → 64% +20FLA 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P216:29Simon Holmstrom Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14), Oliver Wahlstrom (4)FLA 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 32% → 55% +23NYI 32% → 55%+23 pts
- P35:59Matthew Tkachuk Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (37), Brandon Montour (9)FLA 2 – 1 NYI · FLA 46% → 75% +28FLA 46% → 75%+28 pts
- P318:31Kyle Palmieri Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (46), Mathew Barzal (38)FLA 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 1% → 51% +50NYI 1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT1:57Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (21), Anthony Stolarz (1)FLA 3 – 2 NYI · FLA 48% → 94% +46FLA 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 51%
- Fair odds
- NYI -136
- FLA +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +8 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +8 Elo | NYI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.5% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 1st of 3115–9 | Road vs home | 11–1219th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.