Vancouver Canucks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints3
Red Wings- Jake WalmanGoals1
- Jake WalmanAssists1
- Jake WalmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:23Jake Walman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P37:51Michael Rasmussen Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (9), Christian Fischer (8)3–3
- P32:34Daniel Sprong Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (10), Joe Veleno (12)3–2
- P213:27Elias Pettersson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (7), Filip Hronek (35)3–1
- P211:10Filip Hronek Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (14), Elias Pettersson (40)2–1
- P21:09Nils Hoglander Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (34), Elias Pettersson (39)1–1
- P10:45Lucas Raymond Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (14), Jeff Petry (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:09Nils Hoglander Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (34), Elias Pettersson (39)VAN 1 – 1 DET · VAN 29% → 46% +17VAN 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P211:10Filip Hronek Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (14), Elias Pettersson (40)VAN 2 – 1 DET · VAN 47% → 67% +20VAN 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P32:34Daniel Sprong Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (10), Joe Veleno (12)VAN 3 – 2 DET · DET 10% → 27% +17DET 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P37:51Michael Rasmussen Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jake Walman (9), Christian Fischer (8)VAN 3 – 3 DET · DET 22% → 52% +30DET 22% → 52%+30 pts
- OT0:23Jake Walman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 3 – 4 DET · DET 51% → 91% +40DET 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +12 Elo | DET 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.2% | Shot share | 47.3%23rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 4th of 3116–11 | Road vs home | 14–1213th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.