Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Alec MartinezAssists2
- Alec MartinezPoints2
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:30Dylan Larkin Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (17), Lucas Raymond (28)2–5
- P311:47Andrew Copp Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (12)2–4
- P118:17Joe Veleno Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (20), Robby Fabbri (8)2–3
- P110:55Paul Cotter Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (7), Alex Pietrangelo (20)2–2
- P18:02Ivan Barbashev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (17), Alec Martinez (6)1–2
- P17:00Jake Walman Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (13), Moritz Seider (19)0–2
- P15:04Dylan Larkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (25), Lucas Raymond (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:04Dylan Larkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (25), Lucas Raymond (27)VGK 0 – 1 DET · DET 59% → 73% +14DET 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P18:02Ivan Barbashev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (17), Alec Martinez (6)VGK 1 – 2 DET · VGK 16% → 27% +11VGK 16% → 27%+11 pts
- P110:55Paul Cotter Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (7), Alex Pietrangelo (20)VGK 2 – 2 DET · VGK 27% → 42% +15VGK 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P118:17Joe Veleno Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (20), Robby Fabbri (8)VGK 2 – 3 DET · DET 58% → 74% +16DET 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P311:47Andrew Copp Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (12)VGK 2 – 4 DET · DET 86% → 98% +12DET 86% → 98%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -144
- VGK +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +8 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 16th of 3111–12 | Road vs home | 13–1113th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.