Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals3
- Ivan BarbashevAssists3
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Rangers- Blake WheelerGoals1
- Blake WheelerAssists1
- Blake WheelerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:31Jonathan Marchessault Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (17), Brayden McNabb (15)5–2
- P318:55Kaapo Kakko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (16), Blake Wheeler (11)4–2
- P32:11Jonathan Marchessault Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (16), Nicolas Roy (16)4–1
- P24:04Jonathan Marchessault Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Barbashev (15), Nicolas Roy (15)3–1
- P23:18Keegan Kolesar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P16:33Blake Wheeler Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (18), Adam Fox (28)1–1
- P15:02Sheldon Rempal Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Paul Cotter (11), Nicolas Hague (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:02Sheldon Rempal Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Paul Cotter (11), Nicolas Hague (9)VGK 1 – 0 NYR · VGK 46% → 61% +15VGK 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P16:33Blake Wheeler Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (18), Adam Fox (28)VGK 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 39% → 54% +15NYR 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P23:18Keegan Kolesar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 2 – 1 NYR · VGK 47% → 65% +18VGK 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:04Jonathan Marchessault Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Barbashev (15), Nicolas Roy (15)VGK 3 – 1 NYR · VGK 65% → 81% +15VGK 65% → 81%+15 pts
- P32:11Jonathan Marchessault Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (16), Nicolas Roy (16)VGK 4 – 1 NYR · VGK 90% → 97% +7VGK 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 51%
- Fair odds
- NYR -119
- VGK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +21 | −3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.52 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +9 Elo | NYR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 51.1%14th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 16th of 3110–12 | Road vs home | 14–64th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.