New York Rangers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Scoring summary
- OT1:29
Tomas Hertl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (9), Alexander Barabanov (6)2–3 - P34:27Ryan Carpenter Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jan Rutta (8), Filip Zadina (8)2–2
- P32:19Nico Sturm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P21:38
Artemi Panarin Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (27), K'Andre Miller (11)2–0 - P17:55Adam Fox Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (16), Vincent Trocheck (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:55Adam Fox Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (16), Vincent Trocheck (30)NYR 1 – 0 SJ · NYR 52% → 67% +15NYR 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P21:38Artemi Panarin Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (27), K'Andre Miller (11)NYR 2 – 0 SJ · NYR 69% → 83% +14NYR 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P32:19Nico Sturm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 9% → 24% +16SJ 9% → 24%+16 pts
- P34:27Ryan Carpenter Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jan Rutta (8), Filip Zadina (8)NYR 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 23% → 49% +26SJ 23% → 49%+26 pts
- OT1:29Tomas Hertl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (9), Alexander Barabanov (6)NYR 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 50% → 93% +44SJ 50% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 62%
- Fair odds
- NYR -107
- SJ +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.2 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +82 Elo | NYR 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 41.5%31st of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%27th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 11th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 7–1329th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.