San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Justin BaileyGoals1
- Ryan CarpenterAssists1
- Justin BaileyPoints1
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Fabian Zetterlund Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Logan Couture Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P318:02Drew Doughty Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (30), Quinton Byfield (19)3–3
- P36:17Justin Bailey Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Carpenter (6)3–2
- P31:33Quinton Byfield Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (25), Jordan Spence (14)2–2
- P217:06Trevor Moore Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (29)2–1
- P29:06William Eklund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (4), Jan Rutta (7)2–0
- P27:46Fabian Zetterlund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Hoffman (9), Tomas Hertl (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:46Fabian Zetterlund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Hoffman (9), Tomas Hertl (19)SJ 1 – 0 LA · SJ 44% → 64% +20SJ 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P217:06Trevor Moore Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (29)SJ 2 – 1 LA · LA 14% → 32% +17LA 14% → 32%+17 pts
- P31:33Quinton Byfield Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (25), Jordan Spence (14)SJ 2 – 2 LA · LA 29% → 54% +25LA 29% → 54%+25 pts
- P36:17Justin Bailey Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Carpenter (6)SJ 3 – 2 LA · SJ 46% → 75% +29SJ 46% → 75%+29 pts
- P318:02Drew Doughty Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (30), Quinton Byfield (19)SJ 3 – 3 LA · LA 2% → 51% +49LA 2% → 51%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 69%
- Fair odds
- LA -137
- SJ +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +135 Elo | LA 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.6% | Shot share | 55.0%4th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 30th of 314–20 | Road vs home | 7–1329th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.