Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints2
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:05Shane Pinto Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (13), Vladimir Tarasenko (20)3–2
- P311:15Dylan Larkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (18), Olli Maatta (10)2–2
- P214:32Brady Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (2)2–1
- P23:09Mark Kastelic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (7), Parker Kelly (5)1–1
- P18:57Daniel Sprong Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:57Daniel Sprong Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (11)OTT 0 – 1 DET · DET 56% → 71% +15DET 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P23:09Mark Kastelic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (7), Parker Kelly (5)OTT 1 – 1 DET · OTT 28% → 45% +17OTT 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P214:32Brady Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (2)OTT 2 – 1 DET · OTT 46% → 68% +22OTT 46% → 68%+22 pts
- P311:15Dylan Larkin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (18), Olli Maatta (10)OTT 2 – 2 DET · DET 19% → 52% +34DET 19% → 52%+34 pts
- OT2:05Shane Pinto Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (13), Vladimir Tarasenko (20)OTT 3 – 2 DET · OTT 49% → 95% +46OTT 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- OTT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +9 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +85 Elo | DET 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 47.2%24th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 27th of 316–12 | Road vs home | 14–1113th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.