New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:52Kaapo Kakko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (9), Erik Gustafsson (19)7–2
- P317:17Artemi Panarin Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (17)6–2
- P216:54Blake Wheeler Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (31), Chris Kreider (22)5–2
- P211:16Jonny Brodzinski Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Zac Jones (4), Will Cuylle (6)4–2
- P29:12Zac Jones Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (36), Vincent Trocheck (31)3–2
- P28:33Chris Kreider Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (30)2–2
- P25:51Alexis Lafrenière Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (35), Adam Fox (29)1–2
- P21:24Jakob Chychrun Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (21), Thomas Chabot (12)0–2
- P111:43Brady Tkachuk Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:43Brady Tkachuk Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (27)NYR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 57% → 72% +15OTT 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P25:51Alexis Lafrenière Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (35), Adam Fox (29)NYR 1 – 2 OTT · NYR 13% → 26% +13NYR 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P28:33Chris Kreider Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (30)NYR 2 – 2 OTT · NYR 26% → 44% +18NYR 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P29:12Zac Jones Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (36), Vincent Trocheck (31)NYR 3 – 2 OTT · NYR 44% → 64% +20NYR 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P211:16Jonny Brodzinski Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Zac Jones (4), Will Cuylle (6)NYR 4 – 2 OTT · NYR 65% → 82% +17NYR 65% → 82%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Fair odds
- OTT -138
- NYR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −1 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +22 Elo | OTT 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 9th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%31st of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 14th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 10–1324th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 0–1 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.