Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Philip TomasinoGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Philip TomasinoPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:36Claude Giroux Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (36)3–4
- P217:10Brady Tkachuk Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (12)3–3
- P29:20Tim Stützle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (15)3–2
- P25:21Drake Batherson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (19)3–1
- P119:00Yakov Trenin Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (8), Roman Josi (34)3–0
- P116:30Philip Tomasino Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (14), Cody Glass (2)2–0
- P18:26Michael McCarron Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (33), Philip Tomasino (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:26Michael McCarron Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (33), Philip Tomasino (13)NSH 1 – 0 OTT · NSH 46% → 62% +16NSH 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P116:30Philip Tomasino Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (14), Cody Glass (2)NSH 2 – 0 OTT · NSH 63% → 78% +15NSH 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P29:20Tim Stützle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (15)NSH 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 17% → 33% +16OTT 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P217:10Brady Tkachuk Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (12)NSH 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 30% → 52% +23OTT 30% → 52%+23 pts
- OT3:36Claude Giroux Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (36)NSH 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 51% → >99% +49OTT 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Fair odds
- OTT -118
- NSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · OTT: Mads Sogaard: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +1 Elo | OTT 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%31st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 8th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 10–1426th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.