Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:09Matt Boldy Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (25), Kirill Kaprizov (26)3–2
- P311:34Roman Josi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (25), Ryan O'Reilly (25)3–1
- P32:19Filip Forsberg Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (32), Ryan O'Reilly (24)2–1
- P31:44Alexandre Carrier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (3)1–1
- P212:44Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (25), Mats Zuccarello (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:44Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (25), Mats Zuccarello (29)NSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 73% +20MIN 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P31:44Alexandre Carrier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (3)NSH 1 – 1 MIN · NSH 23% → 47% +24NSH 23% → 47%+24 pts
- P32:19Filip Forsberg Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (32), Ryan O'Reilly (24)NSH 2 – 1 MIN · NSH 47% → 73% +25NSH 47% → 73%+25 pts
- P311:34Roman Josi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (25), Ryan O'Reilly (25)NSH 3 – 1 MIN · NSH 82% → 97% +15NSH 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P316:09Matt Boldy Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (25), Kirill Kaprizov (26)NSH 3 – 2 MIN · MIN <1% → 8% +8MIN <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%25th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 9th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.