Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Cole SmithAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:41Zach Hyman Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (34), Connor McDavid (47)1–4
- P313:25Colton Sissons Goal (13) Batted, assists: Luke Evangelista (13), Cole Smith (12)1–3
- P39:12Connor McDavid Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (15), Evan Bouchard (32)0–3
- P211:39Leon Draisaitl Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (46), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (32)0–2
- P17:55Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (33), Connor McDavid (45)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:55Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (33), Connor McDavid (45)NSH 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +15EDM 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P211:39Leon Draisaitl Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (46), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (32)NSH 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 74% → 88% +14EDM 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P39:12Connor McDavid Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (15), Evan Bouchard (32)NSH 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 96% → >99% +3EDM 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P313:25Colton Sissons Goal (13) Batted, assists: Luke Evangelista (13), Cole Smith (12)NSH 1 – 3 EDM · NSH <1% → 1% +1NSH <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P316:41Zach Hyman Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (34), Connor McDavid (47)NSH 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Fair odds
- EDM -132
- NSH +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +15 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +101 Elo | EDM 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 54.9%4th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 11th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 31 |
| 7th of 3113–9 | Road vs home | 14–75th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.