Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- David PerronGoals1
- David PerronAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists6
- Connor McDavidPoints6
Scoring summary
- P317:49Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (56)4–8
- P315:10David Perron Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (10), Christian Fischer (9)4–7
- P313:41Evander Kane Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (55), Vincent Desharnais (7)3–7
- P312:55Zach Hyman Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (37)3–6
- P33:27Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (54), Evan Bouchard (35)3–5
- P30:44Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (34), Connor McDavid (53)3–4
- P214:30Patrick Kane Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (19), David Perron (15)3–3
- P211:24Joe Veleno Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (20), Alex DeBrincat (26)2–3
- P210:17Evan Bouchard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (33), Connor McDavid (52)1–3
- P115:39Alex DeBrincat Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (11), Moritz Seider (21)1–2
- P111:05Cody Ceci Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (13), Connor McDavid (51)0–2
- P18:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (12), Cody Ceci (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (12), Cody Ceci (14)DET 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +15EDM 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P211:24Joe Veleno Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (20), Alex DeBrincat (26)DET 2 – 3 EDM · DET 12% → 26% +14DET 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P214:30Patrick Kane Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (19), David Perron (15)DET 3 – 3 EDM · DET 25% → 46% +20DET 25% → 46%+20 pts
- P30:44Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (34), Connor McDavid (53)DET 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 54% → 77% +23EDM 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P33:27Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (54), Evan Bouchard (35)DET 3 – 5 EDM · EDM 78% → 93% +15EDM 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Fair odds
- EDM -132
- DET +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −27 | +10 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.68 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +100 Elo | EDM 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 9th of 3112–10 | Road vs home | 15–75th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.