Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evander KaneGoals3
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Evander KanePoints3
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals2
- Frank VatranoAssists2
- Ryan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Evander Kane Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (6), Connor McDavid (50)5–3
- P310:09Leon Draisaitl Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (49), Evan Bouchard (33)4–3
- P38:41Zach Hyman Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (48)3–3
- P33:20Ryan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (16), Cam Fowler (21)2–3
- P212:51Evander Kane Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (36), Brett Kulak (4)2–2
- P29:40Ryan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (12), Adam Henrique (20)1–2
- P29:11Evander Kane Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (6)1–1
- P118:40Cam Fowler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (15), Adam Henrique (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:40Ryan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (12), Adam Henrique (20)EDM 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 52% → 71% +19ANA 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P212:51Evander Kane Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (36), Brett Kulak (4)EDM 2 – 2 ANA · EDM 28% → 48% +20EDM 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P33:20Ryan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (16), Cam Fowler (21)EDM 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 51% → 77% +25ANA 51% → 77%+25 pts
- P38:41Zach Hyman Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (48)EDM 3 – 3 ANA · EDM 19% → 49% +30EDM 19% → 49%+30 pts
- P310:09Leon Draisaitl Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (49), Evan Bouchard (33)EDM 4 – 3 ANA · EDM 49% → 81% +32EDM 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 43%
- Fair odds
- ANA -111
- EDM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +49 Elo | EDM 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 46.7%27th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 7th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 7–1731st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 2–0 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.