San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Marc-Edouard VlasicGoals1
- Kyle BurroughsAssists1
- Marc-Edouard VlasicPoints1
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:07Frank Vatrano Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (22), Jackson LaCombe (8)2–3
- P318:59Troy Terry Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (11), Adam Henrique (18)2–2
- P217:57Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Burroughs (5), William Eklund (16)2–1
- P16:59Anthony Duclair Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (1), Mike Hoffman (10)1–1
- P12:12Isac Lundestrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (18), Jakob Silfverberg (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:12Isac Lundestrom Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (18), Jakob Silfverberg (8)SJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 60% → 73% +13ANA 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P16:59Anthony Duclair Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (1), Mike Hoffman (10)SJ 1 – 1 ANA · SJ 26% → 40% +14SJ 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P217:57Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Burroughs (5), William Eklund (16)SJ 2 – 1 ANA · SJ 44% → 67% +23SJ 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P318:59Troy Terry Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (11), Adam Henrique (18)SJ 2 – 2 ANA · ANA <1% → 51% +51ANA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:07Frank Vatrano Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (22), Jackson LaCombe (8)SJ 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 51% → >99% +49ANA 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 64%
- Fair odds
- ANA -152
- SJ +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +5 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +103 Elo | ANA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.1 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 30th of 315–20 | Road vs home | 6–1731st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.