Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Dylan CozensPoints3
Sharks- Marc-Edouard VlasicGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:44Dylan Cozens Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P34:33JJ Peterka Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (19), Jack Quinn (7)4–2
- P21:36Alex Tuch Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (30)3–2
- P118:01Jordan Greenway Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (20), Casey Mittelstadt (29)2–2
- P114:14JJ Peterka Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (18), Owen Power (16)1–2
- P110:42Jan Rutta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (13)0–2
- P18:06Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (12), Ty Emberson (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:06Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (12), Ty Emberson (7)BUF 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 68% +15SJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P114:14JJ Peterka Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (18), Owen Power (16)BUF 1 – 2 SJ · BUF 19% → 32% +13BUF 19% → 32%+13 pts
- P118:01Jordan Greenway Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (20), Casey Mittelstadt (29)BUF 2 – 2 SJ · BUF 31% → 48% +17BUF 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P21:36Alex Tuch Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (30)BUF 3 – 2 SJ · BUF 48% → 66% +18BUF 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P34:33JJ Peterka Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (19), Jack Quinn (7)BUF 4 – 2 SJ · BUF 75% → 92% +17BUF 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 44%
- Fair odds
- SJ -112
- BUF +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | −8 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +44 Elo | BUF 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 41.6%31st of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%28th of 31 |
| 11th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 20th of 3110–13 | Road vs home | 8–1328th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.