Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints3
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:54Dylan Cozens Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (16), Jack Quinn (6)5–3
- P35:49Alex Tuch Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (5), Peyton Krebs (6)4–3
- P210:30Jack Quinn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (28), Ryan Johnson (6)3–3
- P28:22JJ Peterka Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Jack Quinn (5)2–3
- P19:44Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (7), Brandt Clarke (1)1–3
- P15:24Adrian Kempe Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (14), Quinton Byfield (20)1–2
- P15:01JJ Peterka Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (17)1–1
- P12:55Anze Kopitar Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (26), Matt Roy (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:01JJ Peterka Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (17)BUF 1 – 1 LA · BUF 26% → 40% +14BUF 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P15:24Adrian Kempe Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (14), Quinton Byfield (20)BUF 1 – 2 LA · LA 60% → 74% +14LA 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P210:30Jack Quinn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (28), Ryan Johnson (6)BUF 3 – 3 LA · BUF 24% → 43% +19BUF 24% → 43%+19 pts
- P35:49Alex Tuch Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (5), Peyton Krebs (6)BUF 4 – 3 LA · BUF 45% → 73% +28BUF 45% → 73%+28 pts
- P38:54Dylan Cozens Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (16), Jack Quinn (6)BUF 5 – 3 LA · BUF 77% → 94% +17BUF 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 64%
- Fair odds
- LA -151
- BUF +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −6 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +100 Elo | LA 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 55.3%3rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 24th of 319–13 | Road vs home | 7–1430th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.