Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:40Troy Terry Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (17), Urho Vaakanainen (8)3–2
- P36:45Ryan Strome Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (7), Adam Henrique (16)2–2
- P118:37Jon Merrill Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (31), Dakota Mermis (5)1–2
- P18:17Troy Terry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (14), Bo Groulx (2)1–1
- P16:39Kirill Kaprizov Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (30), Jonas Brodin (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:39Kirill Kaprizov Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (30), Jonas Brodin (12)ANA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 56% → 71% +14MIN 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P18:17Troy Terry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (14), Bo Groulx (2)ANA 1 – 1 MIN · ANA 29% → 44% +15ANA 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P118:37Jon Merrill Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (31), Dakota Mermis (5)ANA 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 56% → 72% +16MIN 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P36:45Ryan Strome Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (7), Adam Henrique (16)ANA 2 – 2 MIN · ANA 20% → 47% +27ANA 20% → 47%+27 pts
- P311:40Troy Terry Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (17), Urho Vaakanainen (8)ANA 3 – 2 MIN · ANA 47% → 82% +35ANA 47% → 82%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -131
- ANA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +95 Elo | MIN 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 23rd of 319–13 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.