Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Sharks- Marc-Edouard VlasicGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:39Jan Rutta Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (15)0–2
- P37:27Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (8), William Eklund (14)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P37:27Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (8), William Eklund (14)SEA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 52% → 80% +28SJ 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P319:39Jan Rutta Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (15)SEA 0 – 2 SJ · SJ >99% → 100% +0SJ >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 47%
- Fair odds
- SJ -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +19 Elo | SEA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 4.031st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.931st of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 41.6%31st of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%28th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3110–14 | Road vs home | 8–1428th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.