Columbus Blue Jackets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Egor ChinakhovGoals2
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Egor ChinakhovPoints2
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:47Brandon Tanev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P315:58Yegor Chinakhov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P37:12Yegor Chinakhov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (10), Johnny Gaudreau (24)1–3
- P117:58Jordan Eberle Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jared McCann (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (27)0–3
- P116:04Jared McCann Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (19), Tomas Tatar (13)0–2
- P112:40Jordan Eberle Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (26), Vince Dunn (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:40Jordan Eberle Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (26), Vince Dunn (29)CBJ 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 59% → 74% +15SEA 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P116:04Jared McCann Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (19), Tomas Tatar (13)CBJ 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 74% → 86% +12SEA 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P117:58Jordan Eberle Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jared McCann (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (27)CBJ 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 86% → 94% +7SEA 86% → 94%+7 pts
- P37:12Yegor Chinakhov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (10), Johnny Gaudreau (24)CBJ 1 – 3 SEA · CBJ <1% → 4% +4CBJ <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P315:58Yegor Chinakhov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 3 SEA · CBJ <1% → 7% +7CBJ <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Fair odds
- SEA -152
- CBJ +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +103 Elo | SEA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%8th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 29th of 316–16 | Road vs home | 9–1326th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.