St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals2
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Kraken- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists1
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:31Pavel Buchnevich Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (14)4–3
- P31:27Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (34)3–3
- P215:01Robert Thomas Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (10), Pavel Buchnevich (21)2–3
- P26:42Eeli Tolvanen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (13), Oliver Bjorkstrand (25)1–3
- P23:55Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (12), Jared McCann (14)1–2
- P110:16Brian Dumoulin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (12), Jaden Schwartz (11)1–1
- P17:39Oskar Sundqvist Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (13), Torey Krug (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:39Oskar Sundqvist Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (13), Torey Krug (19)STL 1 – 0 SEA · STL 46% → 61% +15STL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P110:16Brian Dumoulin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (12), Jaden Schwartz (11)STL 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 39% → 54% +16SEA 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P23:55Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (12), Jared McCann (14)STL 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 54% → 71% +18SEA 54% → 71%+18 pts
- P31:27Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (34)STL 3 – 3 SEA · STL 23% → 47% +24STL 23% → 47%+24 pts
- OT3:31Pavel Buchnevich Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (14)STL 4 – 3 SEA · STL 49% → 99% +50STL 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -121
- STL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +26 Elo | SEA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 11th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 31 |
| 20th of 319–12 | Road vs home | 9–1226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.