Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Vincent DesharnaisAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints1
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27William Karlsson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (19), Mark Stone (35)1–3
- P31:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (16), Paul Cotter (12)1–2
- P118:06Nicolas Roy Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (21)1–1
- P14:35Connor McDavid Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (35), Vincent Desharnais (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35Connor McDavid Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (35), Vincent Desharnais (6)EDM 1 – 0 VGK · EDM 46% → 61% +15EDM 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P118:06Nicolas Roy Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (21)EDM 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 37% → 54% +17VGK 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P31:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (16), Paul Cotter (12)EDM 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 52% → 76% +24VGK 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P319:27William Karlsson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (19), Mark Stone (35)EDM 1 – 3 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Fair odds
- VGK -120
- EDM +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +20 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +15 Elo | VGK 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 1st of 3110–0 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 5th of 3113–9 | Road vs home | 18–62nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.