Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:18Quinton Byfield Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (27), Adrian Kempe (27)0–4
- P37:06Quinton Byfield Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (11), Matt Roy (13)0–3
- P23:27Trevor Lewis Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (22)0–2
- P22:38Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (16), Trevor Moore (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:38Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (16), Trevor Moore (15)EDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 56% → 73% +17LA 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P23:27Trevor Lewis Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (22)EDM 0 – 2 LA · LA 73% → 86% +13LA 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P37:06Quinton Byfield Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (11), Matt Roy (13)EDM 0 – 3 LA · LA 95% → >99% +4LA 95% → >99%+4 pts
- P317:18Quinton Byfield Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (27), Adrian Kempe (27)EDM 0 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Fair odds
- LA -135
- EDM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.8 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +13 | 0 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +1 Elo | LA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 54.5%5th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 4th of 3114–10 | Road vs home | 7–1530th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.