Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Alex LaferriereAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals2
- Ross ColtonAssists2
- Logan O'ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P30:31Cale Makar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (53), Ross Colton (16)1–5
- P211:44Josh Manson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (9)1–4
- P26:20Kevin Fiala Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (8), Drew Doughty (15)1–3
- P118:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (18), Mikko Rantanen (39)0–3
- P114:55Logan O'Connor Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (10), Ross Colton (15)0–2
- P17:44Logan O'Connor Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (11), Alexandar Georgiev (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:44Logan O'Connor Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (11), Alexandar Georgiev (2)LA 0 – 1 COL · COL 56% → 71% +15COL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P114:55Logan O'Connor Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (10), Ross Colton (15)LA 0 – 2 COL · COL 71% → 84% +12COL 71% → 84%+12 pts
- P118:30Nathan MacKinnon Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (18), Mikko Rantanen (39)LA 0 – 3 COL · COL 85% → 93% +8COL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P26:20Kevin Fiala Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (8), Drew Doughty (15)LA 1 – 3 COL · LA 6% → 14% +8LA 6% → 14%+8 pts
- P211:44Josh Manson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (9)LA 1 – 4 COL · COL 88% → 96% +8COL 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Fair odds
- COL -130
- LA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +90 Elo | COL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.2% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3112–8 | Road vs home | 18–51st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.