Los Angeles Kings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex TurcotteGoals1
- Alex TurcotteAssists1
- Alex TurcottePoints2
Predators- Philip TomasinoGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:51Kevin Fiala Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (20), Mikey Anderson (14)4–2
- P316:35Philip Tomasino Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (35), Tommy Novak (15)3–2
- P313:20Trevor Lewis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (21), Alex Turcotte (1)3–1
- P35:15Filip Forsberg Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (11), Gustav Nyquist (26)2–1
- P25:36Alex Turcotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (14), Jordan Spence (15)2–0
- P18:51Carl Grundstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:51Carl Grundstrom Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 0 NSH · LA 45% → 61% +16LA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P25:36Alex Turcotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (14), Jordan Spence (15)LA 2 – 0 NSH · LA 65% → 81% +16LA 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P35:15Filip Forsberg Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (11), Gustav Nyquist (26)LA 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 8% → 25% +17NSH 8% → 25%+17 pts
- P313:20Trevor Lewis Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (21), Alex Turcotte (1)LA 3 – 1 NSH · LA 85% → 98% +13LA 85% → 98%+13 pts
- P316:35Philip Tomasino Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (35), Tommy Novak (15)LA 3 – 2 NSH · NSH <1% → 7% +7NSH <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +47 Elo | NSH 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 9th of 3112–10 | Road vs home | 13–1113th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.