Los Angeles Kings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Phillip DanaultGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists1
- Phillip DanaultPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:04Brayden Schenn Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (22)3–4
- P218:44Phillip Danault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (13), Drew Doughty (16)3–3
- P212:07Jordan Kyrou Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (12), Robert Thomas (35)2–3
- P26:34Pavel Buchnevich Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (11), Jordan Kyrou (23)2–2
- P25:39Jaret Anderson-Dolan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (10)2–1
- P112:51Nick Leddy Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (22), Colton Parayko (10)1–1
- P14:06Adrian Kempe Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (26), Alex Laferriere (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:39Jaret Anderson-Dolan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Lewis (4), Vladislav Gavrikov (10)LA 2 – 1 STL · LA 46% → 65% +19LA 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P26:34Pavel Buchnevich Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (11), Jordan Kyrou (23)LA 2 – 2 STL · STL 35% → 54% +19STL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P212:07Jordan Kyrou Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (12), Robert Thomas (35)LA 2 – 3 STL · STL 53% → 73% +20STL 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P218:44Phillip Danault Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (13), Drew Doughty (16)LA 3 – 3 STL · LA 25% → 47% +22LA 25% → 47%+22 pts
- OT1:04Brayden Schenn Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (22)LA 3 – 4 STL · STL 51% → 93% +41STL 51% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Fair odds
- STL -122
- LA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +32 Elo | STL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 47.2%24th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 8th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 13–89th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.