Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Dakota JoshuaAssists2
- Dakota JoshuaPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler JohnsonGoals1
- Lukas ReichelAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:27Kevin Korchinski Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (9), Lukas Reichel (7)4–2
- P36:07Dakota Joshua Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Teddy Blueger (17), Quinn Hughes (54)4–1
- P218:28Nils Hoglander Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (24)3–1
- P216:43Tyler Johnson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (20), Nick Foligno (10)2–1
- P28:18Conor Garland Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Filip Hronek (37), Dakota Joshua (13)2–0
- P110:05Conor Garland Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (12), Filip Hronek (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Conor Garland Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (12), Filip Hronek (36)VAN 1 – 0 CHI · VAN 49% → 64% +16VAN 49% → 64%+16 pts
- P28:18Conor Garland Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Filip Hronek (37), Dakota Joshua (13)VAN 2 – 0 CHI · VAN 68% → 84% +15VAN 68% → 84%+15 pts
- P216:43Tyler Johnson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (20), Nick Foligno (10)VAN 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 13% → 29% +16CHI 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P218:28Nils Hoglander Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (24)VAN 3 – 1 CHI · VAN 72% → 88% +16VAN 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P36:07Dakota Joshua Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Teddy Blueger (17), Quinn Hughes (54)VAN 4 – 1 CHI · VAN 93% → 99% +5VAN 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 38%
- Fair odds
- CHI -106
- VAN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +86 Elo | VAN 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.1 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.2% | Shot share | 45.0%30th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 4th of 3117–12 | Road vs home | 10–1426th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.