Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Vinni LettieriAssists2
- Vinni LettieriPoints2
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Taylor RaddyshAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:07Marcus Foligno Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Vinni Lettieri (3), Brock Faber (26)2–1
- P213:44Nick Foligno Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (17), Taylor Raddysh (6)1–1
- P112:27Jacob Lucchini Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vinni Lettieri (2), Brandon Duhaime (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:27Jacob Lucchini Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vinni Lettieri (2), Brandon Duhaime (2)MIN 1 – 0 CHI · MIN 47% → 63% +16MIN 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P213:44Nick Foligno Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (17), Taylor Raddysh (6)MIN 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 31% → 52% +21CHI 31% → 52%+21 pts
- P310:07Marcus Foligno Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Vinni Lettieri (3), Brock Faber (26)MIN 2 – 1 CHI · MIN 49% → 81% +32MIN 49% → 81%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 47%
- Fair odds
- CHI -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +11 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 44.9%30th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 31 |
| 23rd of 319–13 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.