New York Rangers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints2
Blackhawks- Alex VlasicGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists2
- Philipp KurashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:37Mika Zibanejad Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (24), Adam Fox (31)4–3
- P318:58Jason Dickinson Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (15), Philipp Kurashev (19)3–3
- P313:37Nick Foligno Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Isaak Phillips (6), Philipp Kurashev (18)3–2
- P29:02Jonny Brodzinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (7), Kaapo Kakko (2)3–1
- P16:16Chris Kreider Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (30), Ryan Lindgren (6)2–1
- P14:49Alexis Lafrenière Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (13), Artemi Panarin (37)1–1
- P12:39Alex Vlasic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:49Alexis Lafrenière Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (13), Artemi Panarin (37)NYR 1 – 1 CHI · NYR 33% → 47% +15NYR 33% → 47%+15 pts
- P16:16Chris Kreider Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (30), Ryan Lindgren (6)NYR 2 – 1 CHI · NYR 47% → 63% +15NYR 47% → 63%+15 pts
- P29:02Jonny Brodzinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (7), Kaapo Kakko (2)NYR 3 – 1 CHI · NYR 68% → 83% +16NYR 68% → 83%+16 pts
- P318:58Jason Dickinson Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (15), Philipp Kurashev (19)NYR 3 – 3 CHI · CHI <1% → 50% +50CHI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:37Mika Zibanejad Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (24), Adam Fox (31)NYR 4 – 3 CHI · NYR 49% → 97% +47NYR 49% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 44%
- Fair odds
- CHI -112
- NYR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +11 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +45 Elo | NYR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 44.9%30th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 31 |
| 9th of 3115–12 | Road vs home | 10–1324th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.