Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Brandon HagelPoints1
Rangers- Jimmy VeseyGoals2
- Barclay GoodrowAssists2
- Jimmy VeseyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:59Jimmy Vesey Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (6), Vincent Trocheck (32)1–3
- P35:29Brandon Hagel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (6), Nikita Kucherov (54)1–2
- P217:46Jonny Brodzinski Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (23), Blake Wheeler (12)0–2
- P21:15Jimmy Vesey Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Barclay Goodrow (5), Tyler Pitlick (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:15Jimmy Vesey Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Barclay Goodrow (5), Tyler Pitlick (3)TB 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 54% → 71% +17NYR 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P217:46Jonny Brodzinski Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (23), Blake Wheeler (12)TB 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 75% → 90% +15NYR 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P35:29Brandon Hagel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (6), Nikita Kucherov (54)TB 1 – 2 NYR · TB 6% → 21% +15TB 6% → 21%+15 pts
- P318:59Jimmy Vesey Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (6), Vincent Trocheck (32)TB 1 – 3 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +12 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +46 Elo | NYR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3110–14 | Road vs home | 15–74th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.