New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Ondrej PalatPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Victor HedmanAssists3
- Victor HedmanPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:06Brayden Point Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (41), Steven Stamkos (26)3–6
- P318:21Brandon Hagel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (15), Nikita Kucherov (53)3–5
- P317:22Tyler Toffoli Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (10), Simon Nemec (11)3–4
- P313:52Brayden Point Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P37:19Jesper Bratt Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (15)2–3
- P33:49Steven Stamkos Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (16), Nikita Kucherov (52)1–3
- P32:49Ondrej Palat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (14), Santeri Hatakka (1)1–2
- P210:40Brandon Hagel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (40), Nicholas Paul (14)0–2
- P21:09Nicholas Paul Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (39), Darren Raddysh (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:09Nicholas Paul Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (39), Darren Raddysh (14)NJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 71% +17TB 55% → 71%+17 pts
- P210:40Brandon Hagel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (40), Nicholas Paul (14)NJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 73% → 87% +14TB 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P32:49Ondrej Palat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (14), Santeri Hatakka (1)NJ 1 – 2 TB · NJ 7% → 22% +15NJ 7% → 22%+15 pts
- P33:49Steven Stamkos Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (16), Nikita Kucherov (52)NJ 1 – 3 TB · TB 78% → 93% +15TB 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P37:19Jesper Bratt Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (15)NJ 2 – 3 TB · NJ 5% → 20% +15NJ 5% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -125
- NJ +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +57 Elo | TB 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3114–9 | Road vs home | 15–87th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.