Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:53Alexis Lafrenière Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (32), Jonathan Quick (1)1–2
- P311:17Artemi Panarin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (12), Braden Schneider (10)1–1
- P118:12Nathan MacKinnon Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (47), Josh Manson (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:12Nathan MacKinnon Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (47), Josh Manson (12)COL 1 – 0 NYR · COL 46% → 63% +17COL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P311:17Artemi Panarin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (12), Braden Schneider (10)COL 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 18% → 52% +34NYR 18% → 52%+34 pts
- OT1:53Alexis Lafrenière Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (32), Jonathan Quick (1)COL 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 51% → 95% +44NYR 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 52%
- Fair odds
- NYR -120
- COL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +16 Elo | NYR 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.49th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 10th of 3112–10 | Road vs home | 14–76th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.