Seattle Kraken at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists2
- Matty BeniersPoints3
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Jared McCann Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P38:36Matty Beniers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (14)3–1
- P217:35Eeli Tolvanen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (15)2–1
- P19:11Jordan Eberle Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (28), Matty Beniers (14)1–1
- P14:54David Pastrnak Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (22), Charlie McAvoy (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:54David Pastrnak Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (22), Charlie McAvoy (27)SEA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 71% +14BOS 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P19:11Jordan Eberle Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (28), Matty Beniers (14)SEA 1 – 1 BOS · SEA 29% → 44% +15SEA 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P217:35Eeli Tolvanen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (15)SEA 2 – 1 BOS · SEA 46% → 69% +23SEA 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P38:36Matty Beniers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (14)SEA 3 – 1 BOS · SEA 78% → 95% +17SEA 78% → 95%+17 pts
- P319:41Jared McCann Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 4 – 1 BOS · SEA 100% → 100% +0SEA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -131
- SEA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +94 Elo | BOS 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.1% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 26th of 3111–17 | Road vs home | 16–108th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.