Seattle Kraken at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints1
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Tomas Tatar Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P214:37Kyle Palmieri Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (41), Noah Dobson (48)1–1
- P15:27Matty Beniers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (17)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:27Matty Beniers Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (17)SEA 1 – 0 NYI · SEA 41% → 56% +15SEA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P214:37Kyle Palmieri Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (41), Noah Dobson (48)SEA 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 34% → 56% +22NYI 34% → 56%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 62%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −30 | −1 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.74 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +86 Elo | NYI 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 46.1%28th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%9th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 26th of 3110–17 | Road vs home | 12–1423rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.