New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Pierre EngvallGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Pierre EngvallPoints1
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:58Pierre Engvall Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (18), Kyle Palmieri (16)3–2
- P315:12John Tavares Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (34), William Nylander (39)2–2
- P22:50Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (10)2–1
- P20:50Mitchell Marner Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (23), Auston Matthews (19)1–1
- P110:31Mathew Barzal Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (7), Anders Lee (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:31Mathew Barzal Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (7), Anders Lee (7)NYI 1 – 0 TOR · NYI 44% → 60% +16NYI 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P20:50Mitchell Marner Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (23), Auston Matthews (19)NYI 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 37% → 55% +18TOR 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P22:50Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (10)NYI 2 – 1 TOR · NYI 45% → 63% +18NYI 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P315:12John Tavares Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (34), William Nylander (39)NYI 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 11% → 52% +41TOR 11% → 52%+41 pts
- P317:58Pierre Engvall Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (18), Kyle Palmieri (16)NYI 3 – 2 TOR · NYI 49% → 97% +49NYI 49% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −12 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +74 Elo | TOR 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.7% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 28th of 317–16 | Road vs home | 11–1116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.