Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Morgan RiellyPoints2
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Alex IafalloAssists1
- Mason AppletonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:48Mason Appleton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (11), Josh Morrissey (27)4–2
- P318:22Simon Benoit Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P315:28Auston Matthews Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (33), Morgan Rielly (33)3–1
- P31:54John Tavares Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (32), Mitchell Marner (32)2–1
- P119:11Ryan Reaves Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Noah Gregor (5)1–1
- P14:13Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:13Dylan Samberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 56% → 71% +14WPG 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P119:11Ryan Reaves Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Noah Gregor (5)TOR 1 – 1 WPG · TOR 28% → 45% +16TOR 28% → 45%+16 pts
- P31:54John Tavares Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (32), Mitchell Marner (32)TOR 2 – 1 WPG · TOR 46% → 72% +25TOR 46% → 72%+25 pts
- P315:28Auston Matthews Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (33), Morgan Rielly (33)TOR 3 – 1 WPG · TOR 90% → >99% +10TOR 90% → >99%+10 pts
- P318:22Simon Benoit Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 4 – 1 WPG · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 63%
- Fair odds
- WPG -131
- TOR +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +10 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +92 Elo | WPG 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 51.3%14th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 92.7%1st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3111–11 | Road vs home | 15–87th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.