Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:13Auston Matthews Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (31), Nicholas Robertson (7)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT4:13Auston Matthews Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (31), Nicholas Robertson (7)WPG 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 50% → >99% +50TOR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- WPG +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −26 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.66 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +26 Elo | WPG 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3112–7 | Road vs home | 10–1119th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.