Calgary Flames at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals3
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints3
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38MacKenzie Weegar Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (23), Nazem Kadri (28)5–2
- P317:28Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (40)4–2
- P315:59Blake Coleman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P34:00Brock Nelson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (47), Kyle Palmieri (17)3–1
- P215:16MacKenzie Weegar Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Walker Duehr (4), Jakob Pelletier (1)3–0
- P28:38Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (16), Noah Hanifin (20)2–0
- P13:47MacKenzie Weegar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Markstrom (4), Blake Coleman (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:47MacKenzie Weegar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Markstrom (4), Blake Coleman (22)CGY 1 – 0 NYI · CGY 46% → 61% +15CGY 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P28:38Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (16), Noah Hanifin (20)CGY 2 – 0 NYI · CGY 67% → 82% +16CGY 67% → 82%+16 pts
- P215:16MacKenzie Weegar Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Walker Duehr (4), Jakob Pelletier (1)CGY 3 – 0 NYI · CGY 86% → 95% +9CGY 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P34:00Brock Nelson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (47), Kyle Palmieri (17)CGY 3 – 1 NYI · NYI 2% → 9% +7NYI 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P315:59Blake Coleman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 4 – 1 NYI · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 51%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +9 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +10 Elo | NYI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 20th of 3111–14 | Road vs home | 12–1319th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.