Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Andrew MangiapanePoints2
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Jesper BrattPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:26Andrew Mangiapane Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P313:46Ondrej Palat Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Colin Miller (4), Jesper Bratt (35)4–3
- P39:56Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (19), Connor Zary (14)4–2
- P34:02Nico Hischier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (34)3–2
- P32:55Kevin Rooney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (18), Chris Tanev (9)3–1
- P23:53Connor Zary Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (27), Martin Pospisil (8)2–1
- P118:10Mikael Backlund Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (19), Blake Coleman (21)1–1
- P115:39Ondrej Palat Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (33), Nico Hischier (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:39Ondrej Palat Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (33), Nico Hischier (18)CGY 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 54% → 70% +16NJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P118:10Mikael Backlund Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (19), Blake Coleman (21)CGY 1 – 1 NJ · CGY 30% → 46% +16CGY 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P23:53Connor Zary Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (27), Martin Pospisil (8)CGY 2 – 1 NJ · CGY 46% → 65% +18CGY 46% → 65%+18 pts
- P32:55Kevin Rooney Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (18), Chris Tanev (9)CGY 3 – 1 NJ · CGY 73% → 90% +17CGY 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P34:02Nico Hischier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (34)CGY 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 9% → 26% +17NJ 9% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Fair odds
- NJ -121
- CGY +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −3 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +29 Elo | NJ 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3110–14 | Road vs home | 11–1219th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.