Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Samuel GirardGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Devils- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Erik HaulaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Erik Haula Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P317:43John Marino Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (17), Jesper Bratt (32)3–4
- P38:58Samuel Girard Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (20), Bowen Byram (7)3–3
- P38:29Cale Makar Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (6)2–3
- P26:47Dawson Mercer Goal (14) Poke, assists: Erik Haula (14), Timo Meier (10)1–3
- P23:49Jesper Bratt Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (16), Ondrej Palat (11)1–2
- P12:05Chris Tierney Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Simon Nemec (12), Kevin Bahl (8)1–1
- P11:23Mikko Rantanen Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Mikko Rantanen Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (19)COL 1 – 0 NJ · COL 42% → 57% +15COL 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P12:05Chris Tierney Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Simon Nemec (12), Kevin Bahl (8)COL 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 43% → 58% +15NJ 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P23:49Jesper Bratt Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (16), Ondrej Palat (11)COL 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 56% → 73% +17NJ 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P38:58Samuel Girard Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (20), Bowen Byram (7)COL 3 – 3 NJ · COL 17% → 47% +29COL 17% → 47%+29 pts
- P317:43John Marino Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (17), Jesper Bratt (32)COL 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 52% → 97% +46NJ 52% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Fair odds
- NJ -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −4 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +20 Elo | NJ 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 51.1%14th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%29th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 14th of 3112–11 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.