Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:22
Casey Cizikas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6 - P28:18Bo Horvat Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (39), Adam Pelech (5)2–5
- P27:10Ryan Pulock Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (10)2–4
- P21:14Brandon Hagel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (16), Victor Hedman (42)2–3
- P118:35Kyle Palmieri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (8), Brock Nelson (19)1–3
- P114:07Mathew Barzal Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (26)1–2
- P16:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (15)1–1
- P14:07Noah Dobson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:07Noah Dobson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (15)TB 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 58% → 72% +14NYI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (15)TB 1 – 1 NYI · TB 28% → 42% +14TB 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P114:07Mathew Barzal Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (26)TB 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 57% → 72% +15NYI 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P21:14Brandon Hagel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (16), Victor Hedman (42)TB 2 – 3 NYI · TB 14% → 27% +13TB 14% → 27%+13 pts
- P27:10Ryan Pulock Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (10)TB 2 – 4 NYI · NYI 74% → 87% +13NYI 74% → 87%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Fair odds
- NYI -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +22 Elo | NYI 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 45.7%28th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 24th of 3110–15 | Road vs home | 11–1321st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.