Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Tomas TatarGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints2
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:30Sean Couturier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (24), Travis Konecny (22)2–3
- P30:36Jared McCann Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (13), Vince Dunn (31)2–2
- P118:14Ryan Poehling Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (3), Nick Seeler (8)1–2
- P117:09Tomas Tatar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (30), Adam Larsson (13)1–1
- P14:36Scott Laughton Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (12), Morgan Frost (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:36Scott Laughton Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cam York (12), Morgan Frost (17)SEA 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:09Tomas Tatar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (30), Adam Larsson (13)SEA 1 – 1 PHI · SEA 29% → 46% +16SEA 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P118:14Ryan Poehling Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (3), Nick Seeler (8)SEA 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 54% → 71% +16PHI 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P30:36Jared McCann Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (13), Vince Dunn (31)SEA 2 – 2 PHI · SEA 24% → 47% +23SEA 24% → 47%+23 pts
- P35:30Sean Couturier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (24), Travis Konecny (22)SEA 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 53% → 79% +26PHI 53% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- SEA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −14 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PHI: Cal Petersen: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 54.3%5th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 25th of 3110–15 | Road vs home | 12–1420th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.