Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:48Kyle Connor Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (28), Josh Morrissey (28)1–4
- P22:29Ryan Poehling Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P118:06Morgan Frost Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (13), Travis Konecny (21)0–3
- P114:03Travis Konecny Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (16), Sean Walker (14)0–2
- P13:37Tyson Foerster Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Poehling (10), Noah Cates (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:37Tyson Foerster Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Poehling (10), Noah Cates (5)WPG 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 68% +14PHI 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P114:03Travis Konecny Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (16), Sean Walker (14)WPG 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 69% → 82% +13PHI 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P118:06Morgan Frost Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (13), Travis Konecny (21)WPG 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 83% → 92% +9PHI 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P22:29Ryan Poehling Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 0 – 4 PHI · PHI 93% → 97% +4PHI 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P314:48Kyle Connor Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (28), Josh Morrissey (28)WPG 1 – 4 PHI · WPG <1% → <1% +0WPG <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- WPG +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.116th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 6th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 11–1422nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.