Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Jeff CarterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P29:03Bryan Rust Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (28), Sidney Crosby (24)0–3
- P27:33Jeff Carter Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (7), Erik Karlsson (28)0–2
- P17:16Kris Letang Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:16Kris Letang Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 69% +15PIT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P27:33Jeff Carter Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (7), Erik Karlsson (28)WPG 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 72% → 86% +14PIT 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P29:03Bryan Rust Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (28), Sidney Crosby (24)WPG 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 86% → 95% +8PIT 86% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -118
- WPG +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3112–8 | Road vs home | 11–1116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.