Seattle Kraken at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Will BorgenGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Will BorgenPoints1
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists1
- Jack HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:00Will Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (20), Jared McCann (16)1–3
- P24:54Dawson Mercer Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (11), Santeri Hatakka (2)0–3
- P20:48Jack Hughes Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (15)0–2
- P113:36Tyler Toffoli Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (19), Jack Hughes (31)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:36Tyler Toffoli Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (19), Jack Hughes (31)SEA 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 55% → 70% +16NJ 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P20:48Jack Hughes Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (15)SEA 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 71% → 84% +13NJ 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P24:54Dawson Mercer Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (11), Santeri Hatakka (2)SEA 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 85% → 94% +8NJ 85% → 94%+8 pts
- P310:00Will Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (20), Jared McCann (16)SEA 1 – 3 NJ · SEA <1% → 3% +3SEA <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +46 Elo | NJ 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.121st of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 26th of 3110–16 | Road vs home | 11–1323rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.